New Home Site links: www.homebuyersguideusa.com       www.newhomesource.com     http://www.homebuyersguideusa.com

What you should know about the market

_{As the traditional home-selling season comes to a close, some home sellers who were
unable to sell their homes earlier this year may be willing to make better deals with home
buyers. Before submitting an offer, buyers should understand the market. A REALTOR® can do
a full comparative market analysis of the property to determine its fair market value.
When presenting a low offer, it’s important to provide back up. Sellers want to know why
an offer is coming in low, so including recent comps and any problems with the property
will help to validate the offer. If making a low offer, buyers should consider other elements of the offer that may be attractive to the seller. Having few or no contingencies, and having financials in order
from the start are advised.}

CARLSBAD SINGLE FAMILY HOMES MARKET REPORT - 

This week saw relatively little price change from last week.

However, prices continue demonstrate a nice up trend in general

over the last several weeks.

Inventory levels have been relatively consistent relative to sales.

Despite the fact that there is a relatively high amount of available

inventory, this Buyer's market is still seeing prices move higher.

Given inventory levels, these price conditions are relatively fragile.

If the market cools off further, the price trend is likely to reverse.

Inventory has been tightening and days-on-market increasing

recently. The Market Action Index has been basically flat, not

providing strong indication for market condition

The median list price in CARLSBAD, CA this week is $623,495.

Investigate the market in quartiles -

where each quartile is 25% of homes

ordered by price.

Median Lot Size 2330

Percent Relisted (reset DOM)13 %

Median Number of Bathrooms 3.0

Median List Price $ 623,495

Average Days on Market (DOM) 150

What you should know …

 he CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) Pending Home Sales

Index (PHSI)* fell from a revised 108.7 in November to 91.6 in December, based on

signed contracts. The index was up from the revised 82.5 recorded in December 2010,

marking the eighth consecutive month that pending sales rose from the previous year.

The decline follows a normal seasonal drop that usually occurs in November and

December.

Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity,

providing information on the future direction of the market.

C.A.R. also reported that sales of distressed properties increased in December, as

lenders pushed to close REOs and short sales to move them off their balance sheets

before the end of the year.

The total share of all distressed property types sold statewide rose to 47.3 percent in

December, up from November’s 44.9 percent but down from 48.3 percent in December

2010.

Of the distressed properties sold statewide in December, 22.2 percent were short sales,

up from the previous month’s share of 21 percent and up from last December’s share of

19.6 percent.

The share of REO sales rose in December to 24.6 percent, up from November’s 23.5

percent, but down from the 28.3 percent recorded in December 2010.

The Latest Headlines

"Troubled homes stuck in a logjam - California's pipeline would take about three years to clear, LPS says."

Foreclosure sales are moving so slowly in half of the states that at the current pace, it will take more than eight years on average to clear the 2.1 million homes in foreclosure or with seriously delinquent mortgages, new research shows.

That's twice as long as a year ago in states where foreclosures go through courts -- before the mortgage industry was upended by disclosures that court papers in many foreclosure cases were improperly prepared. Since then, new checks have slowed the process.

The backlogs suggest that the fallout from the nation's worst housing-market collapse is likely to weigh on real estate prices in many markets for years to come, and on some markets for longer than on others.

In New York and New Jersey, where courts imposed new rules last fall, it would take lenders more than 50 years at their current pace to clear pipelines of homes that are seriously delinquent or in the foreclosure process, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which collects data on 40 million mortgage loans.

The process is moving faster in the other states, where courts aren't typically involved in foreclosures.

In those, the time to clear foreclosure pipelines has remained at just under three years, according to LPS.

California's pipeline would take about three years to clear, LPS says. In Nevada and Arizona, less than two years.

In New York, foreclosure lawyers now must affirm that they reviewed documents and asked lenders to verify their accuracy. Since that rule took hold last fall, foreclosure filings have slid to about 750 a month from 3,500, according to the office of the chief administrative judge.

In New Jersey, foreclosure activity was curbed after a court requirement that lending companies prove that their foreclosure processes were sound. The companies were cleared this fall to resume foreclosures.

The longer time frames may support home prices by reducing the supply of distressed properties for sale. But they also delay recoveries because buyers may wait, fearing further price drops when distressed homes hit the market, says James Sacchio, RealtyTrac CEO.

"It's a question of whether you rip the Band-Aid off quickly or slowly," says Herb Blecher, LPS senior vice president.

Nov. 10, 2011

Do You Love Your REALTOR®? Tell Us On Facebook for a Chance at $500!

The home buying or selling process can be a daunting one – unless you’re working with a

California REALTOR®, who can guide you through the process with knowledge and ease. The

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® wants to hear about why you love your

REALTOR®, your new home, or anything about the home buying or selling experience. Now

you can record a short video sharing your thoughts in the new “Stories of Home” Facebook

contest. Participate by Nov. 30, and you’ll automatically be entered to win one of four $500

Lowe’s Home Improvement gift cards!

Visit www.facebook.com/carealtors and select the “Stories of Home” tab to get started. Be part

of the growing number of Californians who think of their REALTOR® as a Champion of Home.

For more information about the 2011 C.A.R. consumer advertising campaign, “California

REALTORS®. Champions of Home,” visit http://www.car.org/aboutus/adcampaign/

C.A.R. releases November sales and price report

Nov. 10, 2011

San Diego Union-Tribune

Mortgage aid open to more Calif. borrowers

The state-run program, “Keep Your Home California,” which helps homeowners struggling to

pay their mortgages now has broader eligibility guidelines. Borrowers who did “cash-out”

refinances and own multiple properties now are eligible for the program, according to California

Housnig Finance Agency officials.

Making sense of the story

 To date, Keep Your Home California has helped approximately 8,000 low- and

moderate-income households that are behind on loan payments or close to default.

 There are four parts to the program: Mortgage help for the unemployed, mortgage aid for

homeowners with documented financial hardship, relocation help for those in the midst

of a short sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, and reduction of principal.

 Homeowners who completed “cash-out” mortgage refinancing now are allowed to take

part in the four programs outlined above, and borrowers who own more than one

property also can apply for the program. Previously, these two groups of borrowers

were excluded from participation.

 Mortgage aid to unemployed borrowers also has been extended to nine months, instead

of six. Such homeowners can receive up to $3,000 a month. To qualify, borrowers must

be receiving unemployment benefits.

 Additionally, the program has reinstated up to $20,000 in past-due mortgage payments

instead of the previous $15,000 cap.

 To review qualification guidelines, visit www.KeepYourHomeCalifornia.org or

www.ConservaTuCasaCalifornia.org.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/vFUF0p

Nov. 10, 2011

SmartMoney

Investors, be wary of these real-estate deals

Section 1031 real-estate exchanges are back – and that means investors need to be cautious.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/sdqBPC

The New York Times

Triggers of lender scrutiny

In recent years, lenders have stepped up fraud-prevention investigations and checks on

mortgage applications. For borrowers, this may mean facing questions on actions like

accepting cash gifts from relatives for the down payment or signing up for new credit cards

during the application process.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/vzhv33

San Francisco Chronicle

Late mortgage payments up in 3Q, first rise in years

The rate that mortgage holders were late with their payments by 60 days or more rose in the

June-to-September period for the first time since the last three months of 2009, according to

TransUnion.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/swaCsw

The Mercury News

Picking the right mortgage option

Consumers currently home shopping or planning to refinance, need to decide on a specific

mortgage program and do research to decide which will be the best fit for their situation.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/sRK94X

Nov. 10, 2011

SmartMoney

Home appraisals are derailing home sales

REALTORS® and housing experts say new appraisal requirements and a difficult housing

market are disrupting home sales.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/rHT132

The Los Angeles Times

More problems found with home buyer tax credit

An audit shows the IRS has been sending notices to taxpayers that either inform them they owe

no repayments on their credits when they actually do, or demand repayments from recipients

who legally owe nothing.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/uTXnV9

Orange County Register

Where are the priciest homes in California?

Realtor.com’s monthly housing report — based on information posted on brokers listing services

— found the priciest big housing markets in California in September.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/rstbSo

Inman News

Real estate prices continue slide in September

CoreLogic's price index fell 4.1 percent year over year and dropped 1.1 percent on a month-tomonth

basis in September.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/tUizK0

Nov. 10, 2011

What you should know about the market

 Many homeowners considering a renovation think they will retrieve the costs when they

sell. However, unless homeowners keep these projects practical, it is unlikely they will

recoup the costs later on.

 Some renovations are more likely to increase the value of the property, while others are

more for the homeowner’s enjoyment. For example, a steel front door can be a good

investment, while a master suite addition generally is not.

 Each year, Remodeling Magazine looks at the hottest home upgrades and calculates the

amount the owners are likely to get back when they sell. To see the 2011 Remodeling

Magazine report, visit http://www.remodeling.hw.net/2011/costvsvalue/national.aspx.

SmartMoney

Investors, be wary of these real-estate deals

Section 1031 real-estate exchanges are back – and that means investors need to be cautious.

Read the full story http://on.car.org/sdqBPC

The New York Times

Triggers of lender scrutiny

In recent years, lenders have stepped up fraud-prevention investigations and checks on

mortgage applications. For borrowers, this may mean facing questions on actions like

accepting cash gifts from relatives for the down payment or signing up for new credit cards

during the application process.

Read the full story http://on.car.org/vzhv33

San Francisco Chronicle

Late mortgage payments up in 3Q, first rise in years

The rate that mortgage holders were late with their payments by 60 days or more rose in the

June-to-September period for the first time since the last three months of 2009, according to

TransUnion.

Read the full story http://on.car.org/swaCsw

The Mercury News

Picking the right mortgage option

Consumers currently home shopping or planning to refinance, need to decide on a specific

mortgage program and do research to decide which will be the best fit for their situation.

Read the full story http://on.car.org/sRK94X

SmartMoney

Home appraisals are derailing home sales

REALTORS® and housing experts say new appraisal requirements and a difficult housing

market are disrupting home sales.

Read the full story http://on.car.org/rHT132

The Los Angeles Times

More problems found with home buyer tax credit

An audit shows the IRS has been sending notices to taxpayers that either inform them they owe

no repayments on their credits when they actually do, or demand repayments from recipients

who legally owe nothing.

Read the full story http://on.car.org/uTXnV9

Orange County Register

Where are the priciest homes in California?

Realtor.com’s monthly housing report — based on information posted on brokers listing services

— found the priciest big housing markets in California in September.

Read the full story

http://on.car.org/rstbSo

Inman News

Real estate prices continue slide in September

CoreLogic's price index fell 4.1 percent year over year and dropped 1.1 percent on a month-tomonth

basis in September.

Read the full story http://on.car.org/tUizK0

Nov. 10, 2011

Updated: October 8, 2011

_{Oct. 13, 2011}

_{The New York Times              Triggers for rejection}

_{Last year, more than two million people were turned down for homes, according to federal data, often because the applicants didn’t meet certain lender requirements or because their applications were incomplete or otherwise problematic. With lenders’ underwriting criteria becoming more rigorous in recent years, it’s important buyers know the most common triggers for mortgage-loan rejection.}

_{Making sense of the story}

_{~ Insufficient income: Lenders want to be sure borrowers can afford to make the mortgage payments. Lenders typically look for at least a two-year track record of income, which could hurt those who have changed jobs recently.}

_{~ Cloudy financial picture: Generally, total debt payments, including the mortgage, cannot exceed 45 to 50 percent of a borrower’s adjusted gross monthly income. Overtime and bonuses are included only if the borrower has worked for the same employer at least two years, and has a history of receiving them.}

_{~ Poor credit: Lenders typically reject applicants with FICO scores below 620.}

_{~ Low appraisal: One of the predominant reasons buyers are turned down for home loans is because the appraisal on the property is too low. A buyer may think he or she is purchasing a house worth $800,000, but if the appraisal comes in less than that, the lender will not loan the borrower the money.}

_{~ Property problems: Sometimes issues turn up within a house, like a major repair or safety issue that needs to be addressed, before an application can be approved.}

_{~ Information mix-ups: Approximately 12 percent of new mortgage applications were denied because of unverifiable information or incomplete credit applications, according to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.           Read the full story: http://nyti.ms/q4EaZk}

_{“Tough year” ahead for mortgage lending}

_{Mortgage lending likely will fall 25 percent in 2012 to its lowest level since the late 1990s as the}

_{economic slump keeps demand low and as banks begin to run out of qualified borrowers to}

_{refinance, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2012 forecast.}

_{Read the full story}

_{http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/09/27/national/a070159D70.DTL}

_{Oct. 13, 2011}

_{The Wall Street Journal Refinance now? Maybe not Mortgage rates have been hitting historic lows, but that doesn’t mean you should refinance your mortgage just yet.}

_{Read the full story: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204010604576597423407158588.html?mod=}

_{WSJ_RealEstate_LeftTopNews}

_{San Diego Union-Tribune}

_{HUD: We need to make refinancing easier}

_{A leading official at the Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has echoed President}

_{Obama’s push to reform mortgage refinancing to help borrowers take advantage of historically}

_{low rates and lower their monthly payments.}

_{Read the full story: http://bit.ly/rn0b0f}

_CNNMoney

_{Homeownership: Biggest drop since Great Depression}

_{The rate of homeownership fell to 65.1 percent in April 2010, 1.1 percentage points lower than it}

_{was in 2000. The decline was the biggest drop since the 1930s, when homeownership plunged}

_{4.2 percent.}

_{Read the full story: http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/07/real_estate/home_ownership/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2}

_{The Wall Street Journal}

_{Ten tips for high-value home appraisals}

_{Everything from sprucing up the house to having comps on hand for a real estate appraiser can}

_{help to increase the value an appraiser gives a property.}

_{Read the full story: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/10/11/ten-tips-for-high-value-home-appraisals/}

_{Oct. 13, 2011}

_CNNMoney

_{Foreclosures continue to plague housing market}

_{Nationwide, foreclosure filings totaled 610,337 in the third quarter, an increase of less than 1}

_{percent from the previous quarter, said RealtyTrac.}

_{Read the full story: http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/13/real_estate/foreclosure/index.htm?iid=HP_River}

_{The Wall Street Journal}

_{Review of foreclosure mistakes is set}

_{Millions of current and former homeowners will have a chance to get their foreclosure cases}

_{examined to determine whether they should be compensated for banks’ mistakes, under a wideranging}

_{review being planned by federal regulators.}

_{Read the full story: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203791904576609310331811594.html?mod=}

_{WSJ_RealEstate_LeftTopNews}

_{San Diego Union-Tribune}

_{Banks offer cash for completed short sales}

_{The nation’s largest banks are luring a select number of homeowners to complete short sales}

_{with the promise of cash, in some cases as much as $35,000 for each deal.}

_{Read the full story: http://bit.ly/q75b90}

_{The  Wall Street Journal}

_{August Existing-Home Sales Leap Despite Headwinds}
Daily Real Estate News | Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Existing-home sales increased in August, even with ongoing tight credit and appraisal problems, along with regional disruptions created by Hurricane Irene, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Monthly gains were seen in all regions.
Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million in August from an upwardly revised 4.67 million in July, and are 18.6 percent higher than the 4.24 million unit level in August 2010.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there are some positive market fundamentals. “Some of the improvement in August may result from sales that were delayed in preceding months, but favorable affordability conditions and rising rents are underlying motivations,” he said. “Investors were more active in absorbing foreclosed properties. In additional to bargain hunting, some investors are in the market to hedge against higher inflation.”
Investors accounted for 22 percent of purchase activity in August, up from 18 percent in July and 21 percent in August 2010. First-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in August, unchanged from July; they were 31 percent in August 2010.

All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of transactions in August, unchanged from July; they were 28 percent in August 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.
“We had some disruptions from Hurricane Irene in the closing weekend of August, when many sales normally are finalized, along the Eastern seaboard and in New England,” Yun said. “As a result, the Northeast saw the smallest sales gain in August, and some general impact is expected in September with widespread flooding from Tropical Storm Lee. Aberrations in housing data are possible over the next couple months as markets recover from disrupted closings and storm damage.”
Yun said an extremely important issue currently is the renewal and availability of the National Flood Insurance Program, scheduled to expire at the end of this month. “About one out of 10 homes in this country need flood insurance to get a mortgage, and we would see significant negative market impacts without it,” he said.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.27 percent in August, down from 4.55 percent in July; the rate was 4.43 percent in August 2010. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate fell to a record low 4.09 percent.
NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said the market is remarkably affordable for people with secure jobs, good credit and long-term plans. “All year, the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income has been hovering at historic highs, meaning the best housing affordability conditions in a generation,” he said.
“The biggest factors keeping home sales from a healthy recovery are mortgages being denied to creditworthy buyers, and appraised valuations below the negotiated price. Buyers may be able to find more favorable credit terms with community and small regional banks, and Realtors® can often give buyers advice to help them overcome some of the financing obstacles,” Phipps said.
Contract failures – cancellations caused largely by declined mortgage applications or failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price – were reported by 18 percent of NAR members in August, up from 16 percent July and 9 percent in August 2010.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $168,300 in August, which is 5.1 percent below August 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts – accounted for 31 percent of sales in August, compared with 29 percent in July and 34 percent in August 2010.
Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in July.
Single-family home sales rose 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million in August from 4.12 million in July, and are 20.2 percent above the 3.72 million pace in August 2010.
The median existing single-family home price was $168,400 in August, which is 5.4 percent below a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 1.8 percent a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 in August from 550,000 in July, and are 8.3 percent higher than the 517,000-unit level one year ago. The median existing condo price was $167,500 in August, down 3.3 percent from August 2010.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 2.7 percent to an annual pace of 770,000 in August and are 10.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $244,100, which is 5.1 percent below August 2010.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 3.8 percent in August to a level of 1.09 million and are 26.7 percent above August 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $141,700, down 3.5 percent from a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 5.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.94 million in August and are 16.9 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,000, which is 0.8 percent below August 2010.
Existing-home sales in the West jumped 18.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.23 million in August and are 20.6 percent higher than August 2010. The median price in the West was $189,400, down 13.0 percent from a year ago.
Source: NAR

Real estate: It's time to buy again - After years of plummeting Home Prices, the market is showing signs of a turnaround!

The Real Estate Report - Fortune Magizine April 11, 2011
By Shawn Tully, senior editor-at-large

Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.

From his wide-rimmed cowboy hat to his roper boots, Mike Castleman fits moviedom's image of the lanky Texas rancher. On a recent March evening, Castleman is feeding cattle biscuits to his two pet longhorn steers, Big Buddy and Little Buddy, on his 460-acre Bar Ten Creek Ranch in Dripping Springs, a hamlet outside Austin in the Texas Hill Country. The spread is a medley of meandering streams, craggy cliffs, and centuries-old oaks. But even in this pastoral setting, his mind keeps returning to a subject he knows as well as any expert around: the housing market. "I'm a dirt-road economist who sees what's happening on the ground, and in 35 years I've never seen a shortage of new construction like the one I'm seeing today," declares Castleman, 70, now offering a biscuit to his miniature donkey Thumper. "The talking heads who are down on real estate will hate to hear this, but America needs to build a lot more houses. And in most markets the price of new homes is fixin' to rise, not fall."

Castleman is in a unique position to know. As the founder and CEO of a company called Metrostudy, he's spent more than three decades tracking real-time data on the country's inventory of new homes. Each quarter he dispatches 500 inspectors to literally drive through 45,000 subdivisions from Baltimore to Sacramento. The inspectors examine 5 million finished lots, one at a time, and record whether they contain a house that's under construction, one that's finished and for sale, or a home that's sold. Metrostudy covers 19 states, or around 65% of the U.S. housing market, including all the ones hardest hit by the crash: Florida, California, Arizona, and Nevada. The company's client list includes virtually every major homebuilder and bank -- from Pulte (PHM) and KB Home (KBH) to Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
The key figures that Metrostudy collects, and that those clients prize, are the number of homes that are vacant and for sale in each city, and the number of months it takes to sell all of them. Together those figures measure inventory -- the key metric in determining whether a market has a surplus or a shortage of new housing.

Today Castleman is witnessing an extraordinary reversal of the new-home glut that helped sink prices just a few years ago. In the 41 cities Metrostudy covers, a total of 78,000 houses are now either vacant and for sale, or under construction. That's less than one-fourth of the 343,000 units in those two categories at the peak of the frenzy in mid-2006, and well below the level of a decade ago. "If we had anything like normal levels of buying, those houses would sell in 2½ months," says Castleman. "We'd see an incredible shortage. And that's where we're heading."
If all the noise you're hearing about housing has you totally confused, join the crowd. One day you'll read that owning a home has never been more affordable. The next day you'll see news that housing starts have plunged to nearly their lowest level in half a century, as headlines announced in March. After four years of falling prices and surging foreclosures, it's hard to know what to think. Even Robert Shiller and Karl Case can't agree. The two economists, who together created the widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indices, are right now offering sharply contrasting views of housing's future. Shiller recently warned that the chances were high for a further double-digit drop in U.S. home prices. But in an interview with Fortune, Case took a far brighter view: "The lack of new home building is a huge help that a lot of people are ignoring," says Case. "People think I'm crazy to be optimistic, but housing is looking like the little engine that could."

To see where real estate is truly headed, it's critical to keep your eye firmly on the fundamentals that, over time, always determine the course of prices and construction. During the last decade's historic run-up in prices, Fortune repeatedly warned that things were moving too fast. In a cover story titled "Is the Housing Boom Over?," this writer's analysis found that the basic forces that govern the market -- the cost of owning vs. renting and the level of new construction -- were in bubble territory. Eventually reality set in, and prices plummeted. Our current view focuses on those same fundamentals -- only now they're pointing in the opposite direction.
So let's state it simply and forcibly: Housing is back.

Two basic factors are laying the foundation for dramatic recovery in residential real estate. The first is the historic drop in new construction that so amazes Castleman. The second is a steep decline in prices, on the order of 30% nationwide since 2006, and as much as 55% in the hardest-hit markets. The story of this downturn has been an astonishing flight from the traditional American approach of buying new houses to an embrace of renting. But the new affordability will gradually lure Americans back to buying homes. And the return of the homeowner will start raising prices in many markets this year.

Of course, home prices are low and home construction is weak for a reason: incredibly low demand. For our scenario to play out, America will need a decent economy, with job creation and consumer confidence continuing to claw their way back to normal.
One big fear is that today's tight credit standards will chill the market. But we're really returning to the standards that prevailed before the craze, and those requirements didn't stop prices and homebuilding from rising in a good economy. "The credit standards are now at about historical levels, excluding the bubble period," says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. "We saw prices rising with fundamentals in those periods, and it will happen again."

To see why, let's examine the remarkable shift in home affordability. A new study by Deutsche Bank measures affordability in two ways: first, the share of income Americans are paying to own a home. And second, the cost of owning vs. renting. On the first metric, the analysis finds that homeowners now pay just 9.8% of their income in after-tax mortgage, tax, and insurance payments. That's down from 17.2% at the bubble's peak in 2007, and by far the lowest number in the Deutsche Bank database, going back to 1999. The second measure, the cost of owning compared with renting, should also inspire potential buyers. In 28 out of 54 major markets, it's now cheaper to pay a mortgage and other major costs than to rent the same house. What's most compelling is that in all of the distressed markets, owning now wins by a wide margin -- a stunning reversal from four years ago. It now costs 34% less than renting in Atlanta. In Miami the average rent is now $1,031 a month, vs. the $856 it costs to carry a ranch house or stucco cottage as an owner. (For more, see The top 10 cities for home buyers)

Not all markets will bounce back equally, of course. Housing resembles the weather: The exact conditions are different in every city. But in general the big U.S. markets fall into two different climate zones right now. We'll call them the "nondistressed markets" and the "foreclosure markets." A more detailed look shows why the forecast for both is favorable.

Nondistressed markets: Ready for launch
No cities went untouched by the collapse in prices over the past few years. But markets such as Northern Virginia, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, San Diego, the San Francisco suburbs, and virtually all of Texas held up reasonably well. In those areas prices spiked far less than in bubble cities -- the foreclosure markets we'll get to shortly -- chiefly because they didn't get nearly as many speculators who thought they could flip the homes or rent them to snowbirds.
The nondistressed markets will be able to get prices rising and construction growing far faster than the harder-hit areas for a simple reason: Although some of these markets are still suffering from foreclosures, they don't need to work through the big overhang haunting a Las Vegas or a Phoenix. The number of new homes for sale or in the pipeline is extraordinarily low in nondistressed markets. San Diego is typical. It has just 921 freestanding homes for sale or under construction, compared with 4,425 in late 2005. The challenge for these cities is to generate enough demand to reduce inventories of existing, or resale, homes. In the entire country the resale supply stands at 3.5 million houses and condos. That's a fairly high number, since it would take more than eight months to sell those properties; seven months or below is the threshold for a strong market.

But in the nondistressed cities, the existing home inventory is lower, closer to seven months on average. So a modest increase in demand will translate into strong gains in both prices and new construction. That should happen quickly, because most of those markets -- including Silicon Valley, Northern Virginia, and Texas -- are now showing good job growth.
Zandi of Moody's Analytics expects that prices will rise three to four points faster than inflation for the next few years in virtually all of the nondistressed markets. His view is that prices will increase in line with rents, which are now growing briskly because apartments are in short supply. Those higher rents will encourage buyers to cross the street from an apartment to a home of their own.

In Northern Virginia, Chris Bratz, an engineer, and his wife, Amy DiElsi, a publicist, are planning to leave their rental apartment and become homeowners for the first time. The main reason? Buying has simply become a far better deal than renting. "The market got completely inflated, then it crashed, so prices are coming back to where they should be," says Chris. As the couple have watched prices fall, they have also watched the rent on their apartment spiral upward, reaching $2,700 a month. They calculate that they should be able to purchase a townhouse for between $400,000 and $500,000 and pay less per month for a mortgage.
The nondistressed markets will also lead the way in construction. Zandi predicts that for the nation as a whole, single-family housing "starts" -- measured when a builder pours a foundation for a new home -- will rise from 470,000 in 2010 to as much as 700,000 this year. A large portion of that activity will happen in nondistressed markets where a tightening supply of resale houses will start making new homes look like a good deal. "Our main competition is from resales," says Jeff Mezger, CEO of KB Home. "The prices of those homes have stayed so low, because of low demand, that it's hampered the ability of builders to sell new houses."
But many would-be buyers simply prefer a brand-new house. Eventually they'll move from renters to buyers, and the trend will accelerate now that prices are no longer dropping. In Minneapolis, Yuan Qu and her husband, Xiang Chen, a researcher at the University of Minnesota, just moved from a two-bedroom rental to a new light-blue four-bedroom ranch with a chocolate-colored roof on a spacious corner lot. They paid $400,000, a bargain price compared with a few years ago. The couple, both in their early thirties, moved to Minnesota from China six years ago. "We wanted to buy a house, and we've been waiting and waiting and waiting," says Qu. "The prices went down for so long, we finally thought they couldn't keep falling." For Qu the only choice was new construction. "We're not very handy people," she admits.

Foreclosure markets: The outlook is brightening
A home off the market in Mesa, Ariz.
The true disaster areas for housing since the bubble burst have been Sunbelt cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Miami -- places that boasted great job and population growth in the mid-2000s, only to suffer a housing crash that swamped them with empty homes and condos and crushed their economies. But people always want to live in those sunny locales, and their job markets are starting to recover, albeit slowly. In foreclosure markets the inventory problem is far greater because it includes not just traditional resale homes but millions of distressed properties. Fortunately those houses are now such a screaming deal that investors, including lots of mom-and-pop buyers, are purchasing them at a rapid pace. To be sure, some foreclosure markets won't rebound for years because they're both vastly overbuilt and far from big job centers; a prime example is California's Inland Empire, a real estate disaster zone 80 miles east of Los Angeles.

But the outlook is brightening for Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, and parts of Northern California. A big positive is the tiny supply of new homes entering the market. Phoenix, for example, has a total of just 8,100 new homes that are either for sale or under construction, down from 53,000 in mid-2006. The big test in these cities is absorbing the steady stream of distressed properties. The foreclosures put downward pressure on the market far out of proportion to their numbers because of markdown pricing. "We had levels of inventory even higher than this in 1990 and 1991," says MIT economist William Wheaton. "But they were traditional listings, not foreclosures, so they didn't create the big discounts you get with foreclosures."

Wheaton reckons that we'll see a flow of around 1 million foreclosures a year, at a fairly even pace, from now through 2013. That figure is frequently cited as evidence that the market is doomed for years in most foreclosure markets. Not so. The reason is that the vast bulk of those units, probably over 600,000, according to Gleb Nechayev, an economist with real estate firm CB Richard Ellis (CBG), are being converted to rentals either by investors or their current owners. Those properties are finding plenty of renters, since the rental market is still extremely strong across the country. Remember, the millions who lost their homes to foreclosure still need somewhere to live.

A typical investor is Alex Barbalat, a Russian immigrant who's purchased seven homes east of San Francisco in the towns of Bay Point, Antioch, and Pittsburg. His average purchase price is around $100,000 for homes that once sold for between $300,000 and $500,000. But he has no trouble finding renters, since his tenants can commute to jobs in San Francisco on the BART transit system. Barbalat is pocketing rental yields on the prices he paid of around 12%, and he's in no hurry to sell. "I'm holding them until prices drastically rise," he says.
Investment funds are also entering the game. Dotan Y. Melech looks for bargains in Las Vegas for UnitedAMS, a firm he co-founded that manages apartments and other real estate investments. The firm has raised more than $20 million from outside investors to purchase distressed properties. So far, Melech has bought around 300 houses and plans to purchase another 200 this year. He has no trouble renting the houses he buys, since, he estimates, occupancy rates in Las Vegas are touching 95%. The "cap rate," or return on investment after all expenses, is between 8% and 10% -- twice the rate on 10-year Treasuries. Melech rents to people who lost their homes but are reliable renters. "A lot of people can't be buyers because their credit got hurt," he says.
Even with investors jumping in, buying activity in foreclosure markets hasn't yet increased enough to bring inventories down. It will soon. Zandi thinks prices will fall a couple of percentage points lower in the distressed markets in the short run. "But that will be overshooting," he says. "It's like an elastic band. If prices do drop this year, they will need to bounce back because they'll be far too low compared with rents and replacement cost." Renters will come off the sidelines to purchase homes in the years ahead, precisely the opposite trend of the past few years.
Consider the example of Michael Dynda, a retired Air Force avionics technician who now works for a government contractor in Las Vegas. Dynda, 49, is a first-time buyer who put off purchasing for years, in part because prices were falling so rapidly in Las Vegas, with no bottom in sight. But last year the combination of bargain prices and low mortgage rates became too good to resist. He ended up purchasing a 2,300-square-foot stucco home for $240,000, or about half what it would have fetched in 2007. Dynda got a 4.38% home loan, and pays the same amount on his mortgage as on the rent on the house he left to become a homeowner. "The timing was about as good as it could get," says Dynda.
 
Mike Castleman's company tracks the inventory of new homes in 19 states across the country. He sees supply getting tight. "Home prices are fixin' to rise," he says.
Back on the ranch, Mike Castleman is lounging in his creek-front mansion, built from "a hundred tons of fine central Texas limestone." As he shows off his collection of custom-made guitars, including one crafted to resemble the skin of a rattlesnake, the homespun housing guru once again returns to his favorite topic.
Castleman claims that this recovery will look like all the others: It will bring a severe shortage of housing. He invokes the livestock business to explain. "It takes three years between the time a bull mates with a cow and when you get a calf ready for market," he says. "That's how it is in housing too. We'll get a big surge in demand and the drywall companies will take a long time to ramp up, and it will take years to get new lots approved. Buyers will show up looking for a house in a subdivision, and all the houses will be sold. The builders will tell them it will take six months to deliver a house." But those folks, says Castleman, will be set on buying a place. "And they'll want it so bad they'll bid the prices up!" In other words: Beat the crowd.
It's a Great Time to Buy a House
Mike Castleman, the Texan with the best realtime view of housing in the U.S., tells editor-atlarge Shawn Tully that the naysayers are about to get a big surprise: rising prices for new homes.

Tracking recovery in 2011 housing markets

Experts say it's all about location and jobs

By Dian Hymer, Tuesday, February 1, 2011.

Inman News™

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 9.8 percent in November 2010, up from 9.3 percent in 2009, though that rate fell to 9.4 percent in December 2010.

About 8 million jobs have been lost during this economic downturn, the biggest job loss since the Great Depression. Only 1 million have been added, according to Ken Rosen, chair of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley. Rosen doesn't believe the job market will fully recover quickly.

Location is vital to determining if a housing market is stabilizing, moving up or continuing to decline. Recent data from online real estate company Zillow, which offers home-price estimates, indicates that U.S. home prices will probably lose value in 2010 compared to 2009. However, four of the largest 20 markets analyzed by the company did not decline in value: Los Angeles, Boston, Riverside (Calif.) and San Diego. The gateway cities -- Boston, New York City, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego -- are bouncing back, according to Rosen. The Central Valley in California has not yet stabilized. Silicon Valley is doing well with job creation, and home sales have picked up in the area. Washington, D.C., continues to grow.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), expects a modest rebound in home sales in 2011, dependent on an improvement in the labor market. Analysts at Morgan Stanley are not as optimistic. They predict home prices will fall 5 to 10 percent in 2011, followed by flat prices for four years.

Homebuying is dependent on affordability. Recently, buyers have taken advantage of low home prices and low interest rates. During the last two weeks of November and first week and a half of December 2010, interest rates jumped approximately 0.5 percent on fixed-rate mortgages. While still low by historic standards, this does affect how much buyers can afford to pay.

HOUSE HUNTING TIP: Buyers who were prequalified or preapproved for a mortgage before rates jumped should talk to their mortgage representative to find out how this will affect their homebuying power. Also, both buyers and sellers should check to see if higher interest rates are having any impact on local home prices. If your area is bloated with inventory and fewer buyers can afford your home, you may have to make a price accommodation in order to sell.

However, if you're a buyer looking in a highly desirable low-inventory market, perhaps in a gateway city, you may find that home prices aren't affected by higher interest rates. You may need to buy a less expensive home.

The news on the economy and the housing market is not all bad. Although home sales were down an unexpected 2.2 percent in October 2010, perhaps due to the end of the homebuyer tax credit closings in September, the National Association of Realtors reported this month that the sales rate for existing homes rose about 12.3 percent from November 2010 to December 2010, while falling 2.9 percent compared to December 2009.

And the group's latest real estate and economic forecast, anticipates that sales of existing homes, after falling 4.8 percent in 2010, will rise 7.9 percent this year, to 5.3 million, and another 4.5 percent in 2012, to 5.53 million.

The pending sale index, which tracks home-sale transactions that were signed but not yet closed, has risen for three consecutive months, from October 2010 through December 2010.

Consumer sentiment rose to 74.2 in December from 71.6 in November, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey. The U.S. trade deficit was at a two-year low in October. Thanksgiving air travel was up 11 percent over 2009. Pre-Christmas retail sales also increased over a year ago.

THE CLOSING: Focus on location and be prepared for volatility.

Foreclosure rate retreats from record high
MBA: Improvement in performance of 2005-07 loans
By INMAN NEWSThe percentage of homeowners with mortgages who were in foreclosure or seriously delinquent fell during the first three months of the year, and improvement in the performance of loans taken out from 2005-07 suggests a sustainable trend, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today in in releasing its quarterly National Delinquency Survey.

The serious delinquency rate -- the percentage of loans in foreclosure or delinquent by 90 days or more -- was 8.1 percent during the first quarter, down from 8.6 percent during the last three months of 2010 and 9.54 percent a year ago.

The percentage of mortgages in foreclosure was 4.52 percent, down from a record high of 4.64 percent in the fourth quarter, and the percentage of loans behind by 90 days or more dropped for the fifth consecutive quarter, to 3.58 percent.

"Of particular importance is that the drop in the percentage of loans 90 days or more past due was driven by improving numbers for loans originated between 2005 and 2007," said MBA chief economist Jay Brinkmann, in a statement.

Those loans -- originated before many lenders tightened their underwriting standards -- drove the mortgage market collapse, and now represent about 31 percent of loans outstanding but 65 percent of the loans seriously delinquent.

"Given that loans originated during this period are now past the point where loans normally default, and that loans originated since then generally have better credit quality, mortgage performance should continue to improve," Brinkmann said.

The survey covers about 88 percent of an estimated 49.7 million outstanding first mortgages. Extrapolating the survey's serious delinquency rate to all of those loans suggests about 4 million residential mortgages were in foreclosure (2.24 million) or delinquent by more than 90 days (1.78 million) during the first quarter.

Although the owners of some of those homes may be able to get current on their loans or negotiate a short sale, recent trends suggest most will lose their homes -- making them part of a "shadow inventory" of homes destined to be put up for sale by lenders as real estate owned (REO) properties.

The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or behind by at least one payment was 12.31 percent, down from 13.6 percent during the fourth quarter. That equates to about 6.1 million loans.

But Brinkmann said short-term delinquencies remain at pre-recession levels, and foreclosure starts marked their second-largest drop ever during the first quarter, bringing them back to the lowest level since the end of 2008.

The survey showed 1.08 percent of outstanding mortgages entered the foreclosure process during the first quarter, or roughly 536,000 loans.

Although useful for gauging trends, Brinkmann acknowledged that national delinquency statistics "are somewhat meaningless" in real estate because local market conditions determine values and people's perception of values.

More than half of all loans in foreclosure are located in just five states: Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey.

In Florida, for example, 23 percent of loans are at least one payment behind or in foreclosure, and nearly one-fourth of all homes in foreclosure are located in the state.

Brinkmann noted that the survey showed foreclosures are still being initiated in Nevada at an annualized rate of more than 9 percent, and in Arizona the annualized rate of foreclosures started is more than 7 percent.

Although not all homes that enter the foreclosure process are ultimately repossessed by banks or sold to investors on the courthouse steps, a glut of of REO properties and short sales has depressed prices in many markets, discouraging some owners of nondistressed properties from putting them on the market.

The California Association of Realtors today reported that distressed properties accounted for 48 percent of all home sales in the state during April, down from 51 percent in March but about the same as the 49 percent share registered a year ago.

CAR said REO properties accounted for 28 percent of sales in April, down from 31 percent in March, and that 19 percent of sales were short sales, down from 20 percent in March.

The MBA's National Delinquency Survey also sheds some light on the impact of the robo-signing controversy, which has slowed the flow of properties through the foreclosure process. Those impacts are greatest in judicial foreclosure states, where courts are typically involved in the process.

The states with the biggest increase in the number of loans in foreclosure during the first quarter -- Florida, New Jersey and Illinois -- are all judicial foreclosure states, Brinkmann noted.

In states with the largest decreases in loans in foreclosure -- California, Arizona and Michigan -- most foreclosures are processed non-judicially.

ForeclosureRadar, which tracks foreclosure-related filings in five Western states, this week reported that foreclosure-related filings in California fell in April to lows not seen since the fall of 2008.

Notice of default filings, auction notices, bank repossessions, and sales to third parties were all down dramatically in California and Arizona, the company said. While Nevada saw declines in notices of default and auction notices, bank repossessions were largely unchanged and sales to third parties jumped.  

   Search your ZIP: San Diego housing data

By Lily Leung

12:31 p.m., May 20, 2011

The U-T's interactive spreadsheet for April housing data, San Diego County

Want to know the median price for homes in your area for April?

Search for your ZIP code in the Union-Tribune's interactive spreadsheet of prices and sales in San Diego County.

Click here or the image on the right for the latest spreadsheet.

You can filter and sort by ZIP code, region and neighborhood name.

To know before diving in:

--There are five blue tabs at the top of the spreadsheet, going from left to right.

--Tab one shows resale figures for single-family homes.

--Tab two shows resale figures for condominiums.

--Tab three covers new-home sales, accounting for both condos and single-family homes.

--Tab four shows data for all types of housing, also known as combined sales.

A couple of notes on the fields:

In each spreadsheet, we compare sales numbers and prices in April 2011 and a year ago.

There are pull-down menus assigned to each column. Feel free to sort and filter as you wish.

Lastly, you can click on each ZIP code, which will take you to a Google locater map.

Related links:

San Diego home prices take slight dip in April

Federal Reserve: Housing, rising gas prices slowing down recovery

Search your ZIP: San Diego foreclosure data, April

Experts say jobs, foreclosures play key role in growth time line

By Glenn Roberts Jr., Monday, June 20, 2011.

Inman News™

He blamed a lack of job creation, "unreasonably stringent lending standards," and depleted consumer confidence as contributors to the stagnant economy.

Distressed home sales are going to continue to account for about 35 percent of all home sales for the next two to three years as the nation works through its bloated foreclosure inventory.

Foreclosures and short sales "are not going to get a lot worse, not going to get a lot better," in the short term.

Some other unknowns that could impact the pace of recovery: congressional reforms that could lead to substantially higher mortgage down payment requirements, and that could impact the form and function of secondary mortgage market giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Also, Smith noted that uncertainty in the European credit markets is another wild card for the U.S. recovery.

He suggested that an easing of federal policies relating to tourist visas could be beneficial to the economy, while upgrading the skills of U.S. workers is a longer-term fix.

While home prices are generally down, "the actual market has been stable over the last three or four years," he said, with annual sales ranging around 5 million for the past few years.

He expects sales to remain fairly constant for the next three to four years.

A promising sign for housing: "We've got 10 million more households in this country (now) than we did about 10 years ago," which provides for some pent-up demand when the market accelerates.

There are changes in demographics that will impact the market, he also said, and "the two-child, one-dog, two-parent family is now about 10 percent of the American public."

Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, said government stimuli have delayed recovery.

"We're not in a 'double dip' in my mind," said Dotzour -- referring to some economists' talk of a second dive into downturn after some signs of an economic rebound -- "we just never hit bottom in the first place."

The market essentially "fell off a cliff," and the government's "lifeline" of programs it throttled at the recession, among them the homebuyer tax credit programs, "Cash for Clunkers" auto program, loan mod programs and Federal Reserve's purchase of Treasury debt, did not have the intended benefits.

The market "would have started coming back up to a year ago or so if we hadn't had the federal intervention in the first place."

"We like capitalism on the way up and socialism on the way down," he said.

And who ultimately pays for such programs? "Not the Tooth Fairy, not Uncle Sam," he said.

Dotzour criticized some reporting by the industry and media of price metrics that can be misleading. He noted that nonforeclosure properties may have a fairly constant price, though in reporting the average price of homes overall -- including foreclosure properties -- the price data can overlook the differentiation between distressed and nondistressed homes.

Like Smith, Dotzour said that there are a few key ingredients required for a recovery: "We need jobs; we need cheap mortgage money; and we need positive price appreciation."

The "shadow inventory" of homes that have been foreclosed upon but haven't yet been listed for sale has contributed to consumers' uncertainty, he said, as prospective buyers "don't know whether one (foreclosed) house in their market or 1,000 homes" may be hitting the market.

"Everybody knows there's a huge overhang of shadow inventory that's going to come into the market," he said.

But there are markets that are faring better than others, and Dotzour noted, "Not every city in this country is ... Phoenix or Las Vegas."

Demand in the rental market should continue to grow because of a variety of factors, such as the foreclosure fallout that forced former homeowners to return to renting, said Stan Humphries, chief economist for online real estate valuation and search company Zillow.

"The stage is being set for very strong increases on the rent side ... demand is probably going to outpace supply," he said.

Between 1.2 million and 2.2 million homeowners are transitioning from owners to renters, and rental prices in almost all metros are expected to rise about 3.5 percent to 4 percent this year, he said.

The homeownership rate may overcorrect on the down side, sinking below the traditional standard of 64 to 65 percent, he said, but he expects that once home prices stabilize -- and consumers realize home prices have stabilized -- there will be a resurgence in homeownership rates.

Like Dotzour, Humphries said he does not believe that there is a "double dip" in house-price levels for nondistressed homes.

"We believe  ... that we've had a gentler, but more consistent decline from peak" in home prices, falling about 30 percent from peak levels during this downturn, he said. "We show consistent decline, no double dips."

He added, "The good news is we're moving in the right direction. The bad news is we don't believe there's going to be in the offing in the next few months."

The federal homebuyer tax credit programs appear to have been largely ineffective, essentially "stealing" sales forward that would have occurred at a later time. "We believe pretty strongly that we paid back every bit of that stimulus," he said, with the slumping sales that followed expiration of the tax credits.

The market's sustained declines should end in 2012-13, and the transition of foreclosures into the marketplace and the state of employment will have a bearing on that time line, Humphries said. The pending reduction in the conforming loan limit later this year should have only a modest impact on the market, he said.

"We're not going to hit bottom until (foreclosure resales) have peaked," he said, which should occur this year.

Another metric that will bode well for recovery: The household formation rate must move up again to normal levels. "We need to see it get back up to levels we were seeing four months ago," he said.

In some parts of the country, such as in some commuter communities far removed from job centers, demand may never return to the levels seen during the boom years, Humphries said.

"We are seeing signs that people want to live closer-in -- they want to live in smaller homes," he said.

And just as consumers are being forced to live within their means, so must the government, said panelists.

"We've got to stop expanding our debt. Everybody's figured that out except for Congress," Dotzour said.

Shaun M. White, vice president of corporate communications for Re/Max International, who spoke during a separate panel addressing the foreclosure crisis, said the nation has already seen about 3.5 million to 4 million foreclosure sales -- which he expects is roughly a halfway point.

White said he believes it's critical to quickly "get through the large number of (foreclosure) properties that are out there and move on."

There is a place in this market for "the responsible investor," he said, as investors can play a valuable role in the recovery.

The average time it is taking to foreclose on delinquent owners climbed to 400 days in the first quarter, and 619 days in Florida, according to RealtyTrac data, White noted -- the numbers have been impacted by the so-called robo-signing scandal and other problems with foreclosure processes that have slowed foreclosure time lines.

"We are at a 40-month low in the number of properties in the foreclosure process (but) don't let that fool you -- banks are going to get this going and I think you'll start to see those numbers increasing again," he said.

The federal government's loan modification programs have so far not put much of a dent in the problem of delinquent borrowers, he said.

But Robert Doggett, author of the ForeclosureBuzz.org blog who is with Texas Rio Grande Legal Aid Inc., a nonprofit organization that provides free legal services to low-income residents in Southwest Texas, said that he believes a call for expedited foreclosures and short sales is a wrong-minded approach.

There are some parties who stand to gain from foreclosure sales vs. loan modifications, he said, and some homeowners find that the programs that are supposed to help consumers avoid foreclosure are failing them.

"There's no place for these folks to go," he said. "They don't want to be there. They want options. They don't have them. My interest is trying to prevent foreclosures from happening."

He said, "There are incentives for these (loan) servicers to foreclose, and there's not for servicing, modifying the loans." HAMP, the Making Home Affordable Program, "is a joke," he said, and the system is extremely tough for consumers to navigate.

White said that Realtors do work to help consumers avoid foreclosure. "When Realtors talk to lenders they tell them what they think of the way they're handling the foreclosure problem. We counsel our Realtors, 'If (you) can help a homeowner without making a commission at all -- do it. It will help you in the long run," he said.

"Lots of our agents work for free to help people with short sales, a deed in lieu, whatever it may be. We're trying to be proactive and reach out and contact that homeowner," he said.

Also, White said that Re/Max has encouraged banks to "streamline their short-sale process. We think that we've made tremendous strides there. We're not where we would like to be but the problem is better than it was."

Short sales, he said, are "a great alternative to foreclosure and we need to get bankers and lenders to acknowledge that so it can happen and so it can happen in a reasonable amount of time."

Rent vs. buy; San Diego is a strong buy!
May 3rd, 2011 1:35 pm PT
 
John Riddle
San Diego Real Estate Examiner
For nearly two years there has been a continuing argument among real estate experts concerning the decision to either rent or purchase a home.  In the most turbulent real estate market since the great depression, statistics indicate that it is time to start buying again in San Diego.
You would consider renting if you strongly believe the current real estate market is going to “double-dip.”  The thought being, why buy now if the real estate markets are still falling in value.  Conversely, if the real estate markets stabilize and return to their appreciation cycle, now would be the time to buy while pricing is low, inventory is high, and financing rates are at historic lows.
Statistics released today indicate that San Diego should be considered a strong buyer’s market.  It makes better economic sense to purchase a home rather than rent the same home.
Indications of a stronger real estate market for San Diego can be derived from several sources.  As indicated in an Examiner article yesterday, large financial institutions are buying up every hotel in San Diego at an unprecedented pace.  Professional experts are recognizing the opportunity and are acting upon them expeditiously.

Continue reading on Examiner.com Rent vs. buy; San Diego is a strong buy! - San Diego Real Estate | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/real-estate-in-san-diego/rent-vs-buy-san-diego-is-a-strong-buy#ixzz1Nn0GrjnJDigging deeper, we find that previously troubled subdivisions are being purchased by a variety of hungry investors and builders.  More importantly, they are showing preference for subdivisions that currently have final maps.  Final maps mean that the projects can be built and sold now and not two or three years down the line.  Builders want to be back in the market and ready for sales now, not two or three years from now.Many San Diego real estate agents are disclosing that they are more busy now than they have been in the past three or more years.  Buyers are back in the market.It is springtime and we all know that the early bird gets the juicy worm.

Continue reading on Examiner.com Rent vs. buy; San Diego is a strong buy! - San Diego Real Estate | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/real-estate-in-san-diego/rent-vs-buy-san-diego-is-a-strong-buy#ixzz1Nn08Pc19

May 19, 2011

The New York Times

Financing foreclosed homes

Foreclosure properties, especially those with the water and power turned off, may not qualify for standard financing, but would-be owner-occupants may qualify for a federally insured 203(k) loan.

Making sense of the story

 Would-be owner-occupants who do not have enough money to purchase a foreclosure

home using cash, may qualify for the federally insured 203(k) loan, which allows

borrowers to roll projected rehab costs into the loan.

 According to one real estate expert, most foreclosure properties are sold as is, and,

oftentimes, heat, plumbing, and electric are turned off, making it unlikely a lender will

lend money on the home.

 To qualify for a 203(k) loan, buyers generally hire an independent consultant hired by the

Federal Housing Administration to review contractor cost estimates and architectural

plans for things like whether the work will bring the property up to minimum standards,

while not going overboard on improvements.

 Buyers should be aware that not all foreclosure properties are eligible. For instance, a

partially built house that has never had a certificate of occupancy requires a construction

loan of the kind that a commercial developer would use.

 The interest rate on a 203(k) loan is approximately a quarter of a percentage point

higher than on a standard FHA-insured loan, and a buyer also can expect to pay 1 or 2

points.

 Also, as with other FHA-backed loans, down payments may be as low as 3.5 percent,

and loan limits apply. Currently, most FHA loans are capped at $729,750.

Read the full story

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/realestate/financing-foreclosed-homesmortgages.

html?_r=1&ref=realestate

May 19, 2011

Los Angeles Times

Are we facing the end of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage?

Many housing proponents say the government’s move to dismantle Fannie Mae and Freddie

Mac means the most popular home loan will be more expensive. But how much more is a

matter of debate.

Read the full story

http://lat.ms/igUMTC

Orange County Register

No housing recovery until 2014?

More than half of Americans don’t think there will be a housing recovery until 2014 or later, a

new survey shows. That’s up from 34 percent who responded that way in November 2010.

Read the full story

http://lansner.ocregister.com/2011/05/19/no-housing-recovery-until-2014/110399/

San Francisco Chronicle

Home sellers are financing buyers with poor credit

Financing provided by home sellers, popular in the 1980s when mortgage rates reached 18

percent, is making a comeback in markets that have been hit hard by foreclosures and where

tightening lending standards and years of economic distress have drained the pool of

creditworthy buyers.

Read the full story

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/05/12/BUD41JEM63.DTL

Mercury News

Fixed mortgage rates touch new lows for 2011

Fixed mortgage rates fell this week to the lowest point of the year, offering incentives for

homeowners to save money by refinancing their loans.

Read the full story

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_18095581

May 19, 2011

Los Angeles Times

Foreclosure rate slows as repossession timeline lengthens

Increased scrutiny of how lenders foreclose on Americans has dragged the repossession

process out to unprecedented lengths, driving down the pace at which banks are taking back

homes.

Read the full story

http://lat.ms/iu1Ynf

San Francisco Chronicle

Mortgage disclosures getting another revamp

A consumer watchdog agency unveiled two versions of a sample disclosure form Wednesday

as part of its efforts to simplify the paperwork borrowers are currently handed when applying for

a mortgage.

Read the full story

http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/

article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/05/18/financial/f090501D83.DTL&type=business

Los Angeles Times

Why are short sales so long and drawn out?

It’s understandable that lenders would want to get as much money as possible from a deal in

which a home is being sold for less than what is owed on it, but turning short sales into an

ordeal is discouraging potential buyers.

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http://lat.ms/ku63xM

Press Enterprise

Freddie Mac launches promotion to sell its foreclosed homes

This week, Freddie Mac launched its HomeSteps Summer Sales Promotion, which offers to

cover up to 3.5 percent of a buyer's closing costs.

Read the full story

http://blogs.pe.com/business/2011/05/in-an-effort-to-reduce.html

May 19, 2011

What you should know about the market

 Occasionally, homeowners hoping to close a deal agree to purchase home warranties to

give the home buyer peace of mind. However, prospective homeowners should do their

homework to make sure the policies will actually help.

 Typical home warranties cover the major mechanicals and appliances in a home for one

year after the sale. Warranties range in price from $350 to $800. If purchased from

reputable companies, home warranties can help homeowners deal with broken

appliances, malfunctioning air conditioning, and other problems.

 The policies usually require homeowners to contact the service company when

something breaks. The company then sends out a repair person who provides an

evaluation for a set fee, usually about $65. Once a professional has determined what

the problem is, the warranty company pays for the broken items to be repaired or

replaced.